NDA@SZTAKI

What patterns does Hungary's real integration into the EU show?

alcím: A 'Heckscher-Ohlin' model and some time-series analyses

sorozatcím: IWE working papers

egységesített cím: What patterns does Hungary\

Buzás Sándor

Habuda Judit

Novák Csaba

beszerezve: 2006-11-13

2002-01-01 (eredeti változat)

Európai Unió

integráció

Külgazdaság

export

Kivonat: Exports from Hungary to Germany are sensitive to the trend of industrial
output there, in a way contrary to the explanation projected. However,
this is not the case with exports to Austria. It should also be noted that
Hungarian exports are insensitive to short-term variation of industrial
output abroad, but interestingly, short-term variation of the real exchange
rate and FDI affect them.
Hungary can be said to show strong real integration with some EU countries.
The findings relating to Germany are important, since Germany is commonly
seen as the driving force behind the demand condition of the EU core,
against which real integration can be judged. It has been shown that there
is a long-term structural link between Hungary and two of the three
countries analysed: Germany and Austria. However, the short-term variation
of foreign demand, unlike real exchange rates and FDI, does not have any
explanatory power over the cyclical variation of Hungary's exports.
This suggests that more direct measures may yield more 'optimistic'
results, in terms of the real integration of CEE countries, than simple
industrial output. Unfortunately, the authors of this study lacked data
to carry out the same investigation for other pre-accession countries.
Although the results are promisingly clear for Hungary, but they need to
be qualified by international comparisons.
An interesting side product of the empirical exercise is that it suggests
that FDI inflow is probably associated with good times in the foreign
countries. This makes it more probable that foreign investment flows in
Hungary are complementary rather than substitutes with investments taking
place abroad. This has the implication FDI inflows to Hungary are not
replacing capacities abroad, rather they are set up jointly with those.

angol

tanulmány(ok)

Text (DCMIType)

application/pdf (IMT)

http://mek.oszk.hu/04200/04252 (URI)

példányazononosító: MEK-04252

urn:nbn:hu-6249 (URI)

http://www.vki.hu (URI)

What patterns does Hungary's real integration into the EU show? : a "Heckscher-Ohlin" model and some time-series analyses / Sándor Buzás, Judit Habuda and Csaba Novák$Budapest : Inst. for World Economics HAS, 2002$ISBN 963 301 381 X$OSZK: link.oszk.hu/libriurl.php?LN=hu&DB=oszk&SRY=an&SRE=936855

Darvas Zsolt, Vadas Gábor: A new method for combining detrending techniques with application to business cycle synchronization of the new EU members (http://mek.oszk.hu/03500/03513/)

Dezséri Kálmán, Éltető Andrea, Meisel Sándor: Technical barriers to trade for Hungarian exports to the European Union (http://mek.oszk.hu/03800/03846/)

Inotai András: Reflections on the timing of EU enlargement (http://mek.oszk.hu/03700/03752/)

térbeli: Magyarország

térbeli: Közép-Kelet-Európa